Subject: Jan 16, 1961 Cuba Program Session Date: Tue, 22 Jun 1999 16:56:04 -0400 From: "James K. Olmstead" Newsgroups: alt.conspiracy.jfk 20. Memorandum for the Files Washington, January 16, 1961. file://Source: Department of State, INR/IL Historical Files, Cuba Program, Nov 1960-Jan 20, 1961. Secret. Drafted by Curtis. SUBJECT Meeting 4:10 p.m., January 16, 1961 PERSONS PRESENT Ambassador Willauer, General Gray, Messrs. Barnes, [less than 1 line of source text not declassified], Captain Spore, Messrs. Scott, Devine, and Curtis General Gray presented his draft of the Defense Department paper./1/ He read through the document and noted several language changes on his copy for incorporation in the final document. /1/Document 19. The salient features are incorporated in the following paragraphs. The problem was stated to be to evaluate the possible military courses of action in event of a determination of inadequacy of the present political and paramilitary program to remove Castro. There was a three fold approach to the problem. The first (a) is unilateral action by the U.S.; the second (b) is with a volunteer "Cuban" army; and the third (c) is a combination of the first two. Intelligence estimates of Cuban strength were reported and included some present jet capability. There is an estimate of the availability of only 750 able-bodied Cubans willing to fight out of the estimated 65,000 Cubans in the Miami area. Under approach (b) it is estimated that a minimum of 5,000 men, preferably 10,000, will have to be overtly trained and that 7 months is the minimum time period required. Mr. Scott noted that the basis for estimating a force of 5,000 will have materially changed in 7 months with present trends in Cuba and the probable degree of USSR support to Castro. It was noted that with a requirement of 5,000 and only 750 Cubans available substantial numbers of other Latin volunteers are required. The final conclusion is that course (a) is the only realistic one with a certainty of the outcome. There was discussion of a further contingency to provide support for a spontaneous indigenous uprising. There was discussion of format and procedures. Ambassador Willauer presented his draft of a covering statement/2/ to Mr. Barnes and Mr. Scott for study. /2/Not found General Gray did not expect that another meeting will be required and plans delivering the final draft of his paper on Wednesday/3/ morning to Mr. Scott. /3/January 18.